3 Possible Scenarios for a Tropical Cycle in the South Arabian Sea... Will Its Humidity Extend to Saudi Arabia?

Arab Weather - Recent updates to various global weather models indicate the potential formation of a new tropical depression in the southern Arabian Sea during the middle and end of next week (around October 21-23). This period is considered tropically active in the region, as the necessary maritime and thermal conditions for the emergence of a tropical disturbance are available. However, the path and intensity of the depression are still subject to clear variation between numerical model scenarios, making daily monitoring important in the coming days.

According to computer modeling, there are several possible scenarios for this system, which revolve around:

• Scenario 1 - Weakening and Dissipation (40% probability): This scenario suggests the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the southern Arabian Sea. However, atmospheric conditions may not be ideal for its development, with increased wind shear preventing it from developing into a fully-fledged tropical system. As a result, it will gradually weaken and dissipate into the open sea without any direct impact on land.

• Scenario 2 – Movement towards the Gulf of Aden or Somalia (50% probability): In this scenario, the cyclone is expected to intensify and be classified as a tropical system. It will move westward towards the Gulf of Aden or the Somali coast, driven by prevailing upper-level winds. This situation could lead to rainfall of varying intensity in the Gulf of Aden and the coastal areas of Somalia and Yemen.

• Scenario 3 - Northwestward Movement Towards Oman and Yemen (10% Probability) : This is the least likely scenario currently, and it sees the tropical system moving northwest towards the southern border of the Arabian Peninsula between the Sultanate of Oman and Yemen. In this case, the southern regions of Oman and Yemen could be affected by heavy rains and strong winds.

In all likelihood, conditions are likely to be very favorable for the flow of large amounts of tropical moisture resulting from the remnants of the system into Saudi Arabia's skies, which may contribute to the emergence of rainy conditions in the southwestern and western highlands and possibly extending to the interior regions during the last week of October. It is recommended to follow weather updates from "Arab Weather" regularly, as any new developments will be analyzed as they occur over the coming days.