A Mediterranean storm is expected to form off the coast of Libya mid-week, with significant repercussions later extending to other countries in the eastern Mediterranean.

Arab Weather - Weather specialists at the Arab Weather Regional Center are monitoring the latest readings from computer models, which, God willing, show the possibility of a moderate storm forming on Monday night/Tuesday and Tuesday off the eastern Libyan coast, particularly in the Gulf of Gabes region, coinciding with the rush of a very cold air mass in the upper atmosphere over the region.

Monitoring the formation of a Mediterranean storm mid-week

God willing, this storm, once it forms, is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to several areas of northern and northeastern Libya, along with strong winds. Wind gusts may reach speeds of 100 to 120 km/h in some areas near the storm's path.

These strong winds are likely to cause severe wave disturbances off the Libyan coast, with wave heights reaching about 6 meters, and will also cause widespread sandstorms in large parts of the Libyan desert, including areas of eastern Libya such as Benghazi, leading to near-zero horizontal visibility.

As the storm moves towards the Libyan mainland, the weather system is expected to gradually weaken as a result of losing its main energy source, which is the warm sea water. This will lead to a gradual increase in atmospheric pressure values and a change in the weather conditions by Wednesday to a state of atmospheric instability affecting areas of northern, northwestern and eastern Libya, accompanied by thunderstorms.

The storm's effects extend to the eastern Mediterranean, beginning with rising temperatures and dust, followed by heavy thunderstorms and an increased risk of flash floods.

The effects of this weather system are not limited to Libya alone, as its weather consequences are expected to extend to the countries of the eastern Mediterranean during the second half of the week, God willing. Therefore, the consequences can be summarized in the following points:

First: Temporary warmth in the atmosphere and dust:

Initially, a warm air mass is expected to rush towards the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to a rise in temperatures to nearly 30 degrees Celsius in Cairo, while approaching the mid-twenties Celsius in Amman and Jerusalem, while ranging between 18 and 20 degrees Celsius in the Lebanese capital Beirut and the Syrian capital Damascus, with relatively warm weather throughout the region.

At the same time, the sandstorms that form over Libyan territory are likely to push towards Egypt, causing parts of the country to be affected by dust storms, especially the western parts.

Second: The emergence of a widespread and regional state of atmospheric instability at the end of the week

As the low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere moves eastward across Egyptian territory towards the eastern Mediterranean basin, it is expected to trigger what is known as the Red Sea trough, coinciding with a surge of tropical moisture from the south.

This is likely to result in a widespread and regional state of atmospheric instability that may include large parts of Egypt, the Levant, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula, increasing the chances of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in many areas, which may increase the risks of flash floods, overflowing valleys and streams, and flash floods.

For those interested and specialized: Analysis of the expected weather system

Arab Weather's computer simulations indicate the formation of a deep surface low-pressure system off the Libyan coast mid-week, with atmospheric pressure values potentially reaching around 990 millibars. This system will be fueled by the warmth and humidity of the Mediterranean Sea, where temperatures in some areas reach approximately 18 degrees Celsius. This will lead to the deepening of the system and a significant drop in atmospheric pressure at its center. Forecasts suggest the possibility of this system developing into a moderate storm, with wind speeds around the center expected to reach approximately 38 knots (around 70 km/h) during the early hours of Tuesday. Its development will be monitored as the first Mediterranean storm in the Mediterranean basin during this period.

And God knows best.