Jordan: The countdown to the end of the rainy season has begun. Does this mean the end of the meteorological prospects for rain?

Arab Weather - As we enter the second half of April, the countdown begins for the end of the rainy season in the Kingdom, which climatologically is known to typically extend until mid-May of each year. For the remainder of this period, meteorological indicators continue to monitor any potential chances of rainfall, although chances typically become less regular and concentrated in limited geographic areas. This timing is an opportunity to review the performance of the rainy season and assess rainfall amounts and their impact on water and agricultural resources in Jordan.

Modest performance of the rainy season and fears that it will end well below the usual rates

The overall performance of Jordan's rainy season this year indicates modest rainfall across the Kingdom. Despite some rainy periods throughout the season, their frequency was sporadic and insufficient to compensate for the cumulative rainfall deficit. As the climatic end of the rainy season approaches, concerns are growing that it will end well below normal rainfall levels. This could negatively impact water and agricultural conditions, reinforcing the need to prepare early for summer.

Does the end of the rainy season necessarily mean the end of the rainy season?

Although Jordan's rainy season is considered to have ended in mid-May, this does not necessarily mean that there is no chance of rain after this time. According to climate records and meteorological archives, the Kingdom has witnessed rainy weather events in previous years during May, and even June. These events occurred in the form of unstable weather conditions, sometimes as a result of the region being affected by the remnants of late-stage depressions. Therefore, there is still a chance of some weather events occurring after the official rainy season ends, although they are less regular and comprehensive than in winter.

Learn about the main reasons for the weak rainy season this year.

This year's weak rainy season is attributed to several climatic factors, most notably the prevailing weather systems in the northern hemisphere, which pushed cold air masses toward the eastern Mediterranean along a dry axis—that is, without passing over large bodies of water. This deprived them of much of their moisture, limiting their impact to a significant drop in temperatures without significant rainfall. This coincided with the expansion of the Siberian High, which contributed to cold waves and frosts during several periods at the beginning of the season.

In addition, the winding of the polar jet stream toward southern and central Europe and North Africa has contributed to the concentration of low-pressure systems in those regions, accompanied by heavy rain and snow. Meanwhile, high-pressure systems have pushed toward the eastern Mediterranean, limiting the chances of the Kingdom being affected by low-pressure systems.

The development of a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, known as La Niña, also played a significant role in this context. This phenomenon cools ocean waters in tropical regions, which enhances the formation of high-pressure systems and acts as a barrier to the advance of low pressure systems into the region.

And God knows best.