Meteorological authorities: The growing El Niño phenomenon increases the chances of rain and flash floods during the summer and autumn of 2026.

The Regional Center for Climate Change issued a report on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, explaining that the phenomenon is currently in a neutral phase, based on the latest climate observations up to May 5, 2026, where the value of the Niño index 3.4 reached approximately (+0.39) degrees Celsius, which is within the neutral range of the phenomenon that ranges between (-0.80) and (+0.80) degrees Celsius.

The report indicated that the monthly forecasts for the Niño 3.4 index during the period from May to October 2026 show a very high probability of the development of El Niño conditions, as a result of the sea surface temperature exceeding the (+0.8) degree Celsius barrier, with the expectation of a gradual increase in differences from the normal average during the coming months, as it is expected to reach (+1.1) degrees Celsius in May, (+1.4) degrees Celsius in June, (+1.8) degrees Celsius in July, (+2.3) degrees Celsius in August, (+2.5) degrees Celsius in September, reaching (+2.8) degrees Celsius during October 2026.

The report explained that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon may lead to an increased likelihood of rainfall and higher flood risks in western Saudi Arabia during the upcoming autumn season, specifically during the months of September, October and November, in addition to the potential rainy effects across the Kingdom during the upcoming rainy season extending from October 2026 to May 2027.

The report also indicated the possibility that the southwestern highlands will experience above-average rainfall during the upcoming summer of 2026, along with the possibility of higher average temperatures throughout the year, and higher maximum and minimum temperatures, which may increase the intensity of heat waves during the upcoming summer and autumn seasons, reduce the drop in temperatures at night, and limit the possibility of severe cold waves during the coming winter season.

The report indicated that forecasts for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon inherently involve a degree of uncertainty related to numerical models, which necessitates continued monitoring and follow-up of the phenomenon's developments, especially after passing the spring period extending from February to May, which is considered one of the least stable periods in climate forecasts.