Subtropical storms may affect Arab countries in the fall, and there are fears of a repeat of the famous Derna storm, in light of the boiling Mediterranean Sea.

Arab Weather - Amidst the dramatic rise in temperatures in the Mediterranean, fears are growing of a repeat of the infamous Hurricane Daniel, which struck Libya, specifically the city of Derna, in September 2023, causing catastrophic flooding in the city.

What is happening to the Mediterranean Sea?

Sea surface temperatures in some parts of the Mediterranean have exceeded 30°C, an unusual and dangerous level. These temperatures rise annually, starting earlier than usual, even in June. This is due to the Mediterranean Sea being affected by recurring marine heatwaves, which lead to an abnormal rise in sea water temperatures and cause major disturbances in the marine ecosystem.

Potential impacts in the coming months

Arab Weather experts say the consequences of this significant rise in Mediterranean temperatures will have a significant impact on weather patterns during the coming fall season. Extremely warm waters are a stimulating environment for rainstorm activity due to the abundance of water vapor in the atmosphere resulting from the evaporation of seawater.

Hurricane Daniel in Libya

The famous Hurricane Daniel, which affected Libya, is a prime example. A subtropical low pressure system, or Medicane, formed in the eastern Mediterranean Sea as a result of the mixing of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere with warm, humid air near the sea surface. This interaction also resulted in the warming of the sea water, which was warmer than usual due to summer heat waves. This interaction led to the formation of a strong low pressure system similar to a tropical cyclone, known as a Medicane.

Archived: Mediterranean storms are infrequent, but they may occur.

Arab Weather forecasters confirm that the recurrence of Mediterranean storms in the Mediterranean Sea is not an easy occurrence. This is due to several factors, most notably the limited size of the Mediterranean Sea, which does not allow for the presence of large, warm, open areas sufficient to sustain a powerful storm for an extended period. Compared to the Atlantic or Indian Oceans, the sea is considered semi-enclosed.