Will the heavy rains of Wasm be delayed this year?

With the start of the Wasm season in Saudi Arabia on October 16, inquiries to ArabiaWeather have increased regarding the weather forecast for this season, the start date of rainfall, and the chances of the Kingdom being affected by widespread and comprehensive rainfall.

The Arab Weather forecasting team answered these questions, explaining that the latest numerical model outputs and expert analyses indicate that stable weather conditions will continue across the Kingdom, with no indications of heavy rains until at least the end of October.

If the forecasts come true, the season will have gotten off to a poor start, with about 15 days of it having passed without any significant rainfall by the end of October.

Reasons for the weakness of the Wasm season in some years

• The arrival of cold air masses and low-pressure systems towards the eastern Mediterranean is delayed, delaying the onset of the season.
• Surface temperatures are lower than their monthly average, reducing the ability of cumulus clouds to form.
• The strength of the jet stream over the Arabian Peninsula, which weakens atmospheric instability.
• The strength of the low pressure system in the western Mediterranean, which strengthens the jet stream and weakens the wasm.