Where is heading to Cyclone Pebargui?

Aerial Briefing - Report (2) Tropical developments (Pepargui) in the Arabian Sea

Release time: 16:00UTC on the night of Thursday 8-6-2023

Weather of Arabia - specialists in the Arab Weather Center monitor the (tropical cyclone) monitored in the south of the Arabian Sea, whose wind speed around its center is estimated at (64-82) knots, according to what the latest analyzes of weather maps and satellite images indicate. And the forecasts indicate, God willing, that the tropical situation may develop during the next 48 hours in the middle of the Arabian Sea into a hurricane of the second degree and its movement towards the north, with no direct effects on any Arab country during the next three days.

Numerical models, which sense the movement of the tropical state, still offer several scenarios for the expected path, as some of the outputs indicate that the tropical state will continue its movement to the northeast towards the Pakistani / Indian lands without any direct effects on any Arab country, as a result of the deepening of the subtropical air rise. On the Arabian Peninsula and the entry of the tropical state into the presence of the "air elevation" and it is considered, after God's command, a barrier from the south of the Arabian Peninsula and its first line of defense, and this coincides with the crossing of an upper wave north of the Indian lands and it polarizes the tropical state towards it Scenario 1), which can be said to be the most likely path so far, according to the analyzes of forecasters at the Arab Weather Center.

While the outputs of other numerical models indicate that the orbital state moves directly towards the Sultanate of Oman and the Oman Sea; As a result of the upper eastern winds pushing the tropical system to the northwest, and this coincides with the retreat of the subtropical air elevation to be centered over the Red Sea, which means that the weather conditions will then be suitable for the arrival of the tropical state in the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula to directly affect the Sultanate of Oman (Scenario 2) and It is a scenario less likely than (Scenario 1), according to what the latest real-time analyzes of the current atmosphere and the expected behavior of the systems show during the next few days. Weather variables, which may change within a few hours! Some products also indicate that the orbital state is moving towards the north directly to Pakistan / Iran, which is the weakest due to the small number of products that sense this path (Scenario 3).

Accordingly, the Arab Weather Center advises to follow up the weather forecasts and updates that will be issued successively about this system during the coming days.