Watched: The first predicted tropical state in the northern Indian Ocean this year

Weather of Arabia - The outputs of computer simulations in the Arab Weather Center indicate expectations of the formation of the first tropical case in the northern Indian Ocean for this year 2023, as the first season of tropical cases in the northern Indian Ocean occurs during the months of May and June and is called (Pre-monsoon), that is, the season that precedes Monsoon activity.

It forms south of the Bay of Bengal Tuesday and is moving north with several possible paths

And it is expected, God willing, that the tropical state will gradually begin to form on Tuesday 9-5-2023 in the south of the Bay of Bengal, with a gradual movement to the north by the end of this week, coinciding with the increase in the speed of surface winds and the deepening of the tropical state. The tropical state will have several possible paths, the first in the northeast direction, that is, towards Myanmar, the second in the north direction, towards Bangladesh, and the last path to the northwest and west, towards India.

Are conditions suitable for the development of a tropical state into a hurricane?

It is expected that the weather conditions will be suitable for the development of the tropical state, which may reach the level of a hurricane, for several reasons, the most important of which are:

• The surface temperature of the sea water is warm and exceeds 27 degrees Celsius, so that the warm water and the resulting water vapor are the fuels for the tropical systems.
• The weakness of the shear winds, because the shear winds limit the vertical growth of cumulonimbus clouds, that is, they impede the process of increasing the thickness of the clouds.

God knows.