Will Saudi Arabia be affected by the coldest and harshest winter in 100 years this season?

As the winter season approaches, there is an increasing number of reports and predictions about a harsh winter or an unprecedented rainy season . It is sometimes rumored that regions of the Kingdom will witness heavy snowfall or unusual storms . At the Arab Weather Center, we have noticed an increase in citizens’ interest in this news. Therefore, through this report, we aim to clarify the scientific facts, away from rumors, while emphasizing that God Almighty is the One who controls the clouds and distributes rain, and that His will is above all things.

Can the strength of the coming winter be predicted?

Weather and climate patterns are very complex, and it's impossible to accurately predict winter months in advance, as even a small change in the atmosphere can significantly impact the expected weather . Seasonal forecasts depend on several factors, including atmospheric behavior over the past few months and the surface temperature of sea and ocean waters around the world. They also use supercomputers to identify "similar years." Scientists then rely on two methods: statistical analysis and scientific analysis of global numerical models.

Even quarterly forecasts, which provide an overview of the weather for the coming months, are not 100% accurate and are updated monthly to ensure maximum accuracy. However, any early forecasts remain merely estimates and not confirmed scientific facts.

Weather factors affecting winter in Saudi Arabia

Climate studies indicate that the Earth undergoes climate cycles that influence global weather patterns, such as the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which control the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and influence the distribution of rainfall and temperatures. Other climate indicators also play a role in shaping winter forecasts , such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD), all of which influence the movement of air masses and the activity of seasonal depressions, including those that may reach the Middle East, including the Kingdom.

The combination of these factors produces complex weather patterns that vary from year to year, making early predictions of winter's severity or rainfall scientifically challenging. Any forecasts at this early stage remain estimates and are not certain, and we must wait for the pressure and weather systems to become clearer as winter actually approaches.

Winter forecast in Saudi Arabia

As winter approaches, many are wondering about the possibility of rain or a drop in temperatures across the Kingdom. To get the most accurate seasonal forecasts, follow the exclusive seasonal bulletin on the Arab Weather app, which is constantly updated based on the latest climate data and global analysis.