Jordan: Does the absence of heat waves in the summer herald a harsh winter?

Arab Weather - Twenty-seven days into the astronomical summer, the Kingdom has not yet been affected by any heat waves. Despite the days of above-average temperatures and hot weather, weather systems have not yet developed to meet the conditions for a heat wave to date.

Does the absence of heat waves in the summer herald a harsh winter?

Arab Weather experts say that the absence of heat waves in Jordan's summer, or temperatures falling below normal, is not a definitive indicator that winter will be colder.

This is due to several reasons, which we summarize as follows:

First, the weather cannot predict the climate.

Weather describes the atmospheric conditions in a particular geographic area for a short period of time, while climate describes long-term patterns, not single weather events. A single season or a short period of time such as summer cannot determine or predict the behavior of another season such as winter.

Secondly, the difference in the behavior of the atmosphere

The shape of the seasons or winter seasons depends on the behavior of the atmosphere at that time. The atmosphere is also affected by several factors and phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña, which occur in the waters of the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean. The winter seasons in the Kingdom are statistically affected to some extent by this phenomenon. In the El Niño seasons, the winter season is more rainy and warmer in terms of temperatures, while the region experiences a colder winter with less rain in the La Niña seasons, without being certain and neglecting other weather factors that we will mention later.

One of the important factors that greatly influences the winter in the Northern Hemisphere is the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which explains the behavior of atmospheric pressure in the Arctic Circle and greatly affects the behavior of the polar jet stream. Low atmospheric pressure in the Arctic Circle leads to strong wind movement around the North Pole and thus a strong and cohesive polar dome. Conversely, wind movement around the pole weakens when atmospheric pressure there rises, which leads to the polar jet stream being pushed to the middle and possibly lower latitudes.

The temperature of seas and oceans, such as the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean, plays a significant role in determining the behavior of the winter season. This significantly influences the behavior of the atmosphere, both during cold and warm periods. This directly impacts the movement of cold air masses and high-pressure systems during the winter. We can conclude from this that the temperature of seas and protected areas plays a significant role in the distribution and behavior of atmospheric pressures during the winter.

So, to summarize the above, the weakness or strength of the rainy season, or its warmth or coldness, depends on several factors and weather phenomena. The behavior of the summer season alone cannot determine the shape of the coming winter season, and this rule is not considered fixed, although it may occur in some years.