A climate report highlights the weak start of the rainy season, with rainfall limited to three governorates.

Arab Weather App - A report was released within the Arab Weather app, monitoring the current rainy season in Jordan. The report covers a number of scientific topics, most notably an analysis of rainfall performance since the beginning of the season, a study of the frequency of delayed or withheld rainfall in the first weeks of the rainy season, and a review of the scientific reasons behind the extremely weak start to the current rainy season.

Rain performance so far in the Kingdom

Rainfall performance is defined as the percentage of cumulative rainfall compared to the expected cumulative rainfall up to a given date.

Data from the Jordan Meteorological Department shows that rainfall performance for the current rainy season, which will continue until the end of October 2025, is deficient in the amounts expected for this time of year in most regions of the Kingdom. Only three governorates in the Kingdom have experienced any rainfall.

The data shows that most of Jordan's governorates have not received any rainfall since the beginning of the season, including the Badia regions, which typically experience unstable weather conditions at this time. The same data also shows that Irbid and Ajloun governorates have received only a few modest millimeters of rainfall, representing less than 15% of what is expected to fall thus far.

This means that nine governorates did not receive any rainfall, despite the fact that October is approaching its end. Therefore, the average rainfall in the governorates did not exceed 1% compared to the amount of rainfall expected for this time of year.

A weak start to the rainy season...has it happened before?

The lack of rainfall is not limited to Jordan alone. The entire region is suffering from a delay in autumn rains so far, as the region has not been affected by any major weather conditions that contributed to "significant" rainfall this month.

On a positive note, Jordan's climate records show that weak rainfall at the beginning of the season is not new to the Kingdom's climate, as it has occurred repeatedly in many previous seasons. This is attributed to the volatile nature of Jordan's climate, which lies in a transitional zone between desert and Mediterranean climates, making it susceptible to significant fluctuations in rainfall amounts from year to year.

This is further confirmed by climate data from the Jordan Meteorological Department, which indicates that the Kingdom has experienced weak or absent rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season in approximately 50 out of 100 previous seasons, representing 50% of recorded rainfall seasons. This clearly reflects the significant volatility in rainfall performance at the beginning of the seasons.

Causes of the current lack of rain

The main reason behind the current weak rainfall in Jordan is the absence of effective weather systems, whether low-pressure systems or unstable weather patterns, which are typically the most prominent feature during the months of October and November. This is due to the absence of cold air masses in the upper layers of the atmosphere, which typically come from Europe towards the eastern Mediterranean.

The distribution of weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere over the past few weeks has led to the concentrating of these cold air masses towards the European continent, areas that have already experienced heavy rainfall above their usual levels and low temperatures. Meanwhile, the Levant and Arabian Peninsula regions remain under the influence of the subtropical high pressure system, limiting the formation of depressions and unstable conditions.

So far, weather indicators don't show any changes in weather patterns during the remainder of October that would allow rain to return to the Kingdom. However, the seasonal and monthly forecasts within the Arab Weather app indicate the possibility of changes to the weather system later, bringing with them an improvement in autumn rains.

God's mercy is above all else, and we ask God Almighty to grant us rain.