Monitoring the formation of the first Mediterranean storm in the Mediterranean Sea in early October!

Arab Weather - The latest computer model outputs indicate the possibility of the first Mediterranean storm forming in the Mediterranean Sea by the beginning of October 2025. These storms are known as weather systems with subtropical characteristics, meaning they have a warm core similar to those of tropical systems, and are accompanied by heavy rains and strong winds.

The same simulations indicate that a relatively early cold air mass is expected to rush from the European continent into the central Mediterranean. This is due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters after repeated marine heat waves last summer, in addition to the flow of warm and humid currents from the south. These conditions will cause the formation of a deep low-pressure system that may acquire some tropical characteristics in the central Mediterranean, with expectations that it will bring heavy rains to many countries.

What is a subtropical Mediterranean storm?

A Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone (MTC) is a stormy weather phenomenon with tropical cyclone-like characteristics that occurs over the Mediterranean Sea. The term is abbreviated as "Medicane", derived from "Mediterranean Hurricanes", meaning Mediterranean storms.

A Mediterranean storm typically forms when certain weather conditions exist for the warm air masses over the Mediterranean Sea to develop into a deep low pressure system. These conditions include high temperatures and abundant humidity, which lead to cloud development and a rapid decline in atmospheric pressure, resulting in a deep low pressure system at its center.

Tropical-like Mediterranean storms form mostly over the western and central Mediterranean Sea. These storms can form year-round, but peak in the fall and winter. They have been likened to tropical storms because they develop outside the tropics. Their most distinctive feature is the eye of the storm, which is clearly visible in satellite images, and the symmetry of its structure around the eye. The heart of the storm is warm. Subtropical storms differ from tropical storms in that their wind speed and force are lower, and they have a smaller diameter.