A promising statistic is that the rainy season has a weak start and will later end with above average rainfall.

Arab Weather - The Kingdom has been experiencing a lack of rainfall since the beginning of the rainy season, raising questions about whether this indicates a weak rainy season. We present this study to you as a source of hope, God willing, as the rainfall situation is likely to improve in the coming months and could end with rain around average, God willing.

Promising climate study: Weak start could end with above-average rainfall

On a positive note, Jordan's climate records show that weak rainfall at the beginning of the season is not new to the Kingdom's climate, as it has occurred repeatedly in many previous seasons. This is attributed to the volatile nature of Jordan's climate, which lies in a transitional zone between desert and Mediterranean climates, making it susceptible to significant fluctuations in rainfall amounts from year to year.

This is further confirmed by climate data from the Jordan Meteorological Department, which indicates that there have been approximately 50 out of 100 rainy seasons in which rainfall began modestly, and during those seasons the Kingdom suffered from weak starts to the season.

However, what is noteworthy is that of the 50 seasons with modest rainfall beginnings, 65% of these seasons saw their rainfall performance improve to levels that made them end either around or above the rainfall average.

The frequency of droughts has decreased in recent decades.

Looking at the last 44 years, we find that the ratio has changed somewhat, as rainfall loss has become less frequent.
For example, out of 44 rainy seasons in the Kingdom, 17 had weak starts, representing 39% of the total, compared to 50% if the comparison extended over the previous 100 years.

Of the 17 seasons with weak starts, the correlation with the end of those seasons also differed, with the percentage of seasons ending with above-average rainfall reaching approximately 53%, compared to 65% if the comparison extended over the previous hundred years.

The current weak rainfall does not mean a weak season

Therefore, the current weak rainfall does not necessarily mean that the rainy season as a whole will be weak, as the rainfall amounts achieved to date represent a small percentage of the expected annual average.

Examples of rainy seasons in which rainfall performance began weak during the fall and ended with rainfall that was above average include:

2017/2018 season: Recorded average rates in most areas.

2023/2024 season: Finished around average in most regions except the South and parts of the East.

Autumn rains constitute only 11% of the total rainfall season.

On another note, the rainfall that falls during the autumn season typically accounts for approximately 11% of the total rainy season. This means that the beginning of the season does not necessarily reflect the final performance of the entire season, making it too early to predict the quality of the rainy season at this stage.

Rain has not yet fallen in the capital, and climate studies are promising for the rest of the season.

Climatic studies conducted by the Meteorological Department on rainfall and rainy seasons, based on climate records, indicate that Amman has witnessed approximately 18 rainy seasons during its 100-year climate record, in which the months of September and October did not witness any rainfall.

Despite the delay in rainfall during these 18 seasons, 50% of these seasons achieved a total rainfall higher than the general seasonal average, with an increase ranging between (1%-75%) over the general seasonal average. There were also four of these seasons that were around the general average, and five seasons that performed poorly to well.

We ask God to send us rain and not make us among the despairing.