The issuance of these forecasts depends on studying the behavior of temperature and atmospheric pressure in the northern hemisphere, including the atmosphere and major water bodies, and integrating those forecasts with global monitoring centers, to come up with the highest possible forecast.
Arab weather experts in the Scientific Research and Development Department have developed scientific methods that are considered the first of their kind in the Arab world and the world, relying on artificial intelligence in forecasts for the coming months, by developing complex mathematical algorithms and equations to detect atmospheric behavior and correct long-range weather forecasts.
In contrast to the daily weather forecast, these bulletins focus on listing the general weather during a month, as the aim is to know the deviation of rainfall amounts and temperatures from their general rates. Many meteorologists in the world are busy trying to decipher the mystery of making accurate seasonal forecasts by conducting many researches in this regard, in which the Arab Weather team participates in part.
The desired benefit of the quarterly bulletins lies in assisting the various sectors in the early planning for the fall and winter alike, especially the agricultural sector, which builds its agricultural plans on these indicators that sometimes help to reap and achieve profits by exploiting this information, in addition to many other sectors that Benefit from these forecasts, such as the commercial sectors, the apparel sector, the energy sector and others.
temperature forecast
rain forecast
There is no / no significant rain
Forecast weather for the first week
It is expected that moderate to warm air masses will rush to the eastern basin of the Mediterranean during this week, which will result in lower temperatures compared to the previous month, and remarkably on some nights, so that moderate weather prevails during the day, humid and pleasant and tends to be cold at night.
temperature forecast
About the average / normal summer weather during the day and mild at night
rain forecast
There is no / no significant rain
Expected weather during the second week
The Levant region remains under the influence of the extension of moderate air masses during the first half of the week, so the atmosphere remains similar to the first week.
Gradually and during the second half of the week, the atmospheric pressure is expected to decrease over the central European continent and the central Mediterranean, which leads to a shift of the tropical high to the west to affect the Levant, so temperatures rise and the atmosphere becomes hot during the afternoon, and moderate at night.
temperature forecast
Changed to above average / normal summer weather to relatively hot during the day and moderate to warm at night
rain forecast
There is no / no significant rain
Expected weather during the third week
Temperatures decrease again with the beginning of the period, becoming moderate during the day and pleasant to cold at night, but during the middle and end of the week, moderately hot air masses move away from the area to be gradually replaced by more heat than usual, to become relatively hot, especially at the end of the period.
temperature forecast
Above average / normal summer weather to relatively hot during the day and moderate to warm at night
rain forecast
There is no / no significant rain
Expected weather during the fourth week
Temperatures decline slightly at the beginning of the period, while remaining slightly above their usual levels, while expectations indicate the intensification of the impact of the tropical air high on the atmosphere of the region during the last days of the month, so that there is a clear rise in temperatures and a relatively hot to sometimes hot summer atmosphere prevails.
Arctic and North Atlantic
The Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) is expected to behave in a neutral to light positive pattern during the first half of the month at least, and this is considered a normal behavior for this time of the year .
As for the North Atlantic Oscillation coefficient (NAO) , it is expected to start similar to the Arctic coefficient, provided that it continues its behavior during most periods of the month within its normal range .
These conditions are often accompanied by a good distribution of moderately hot air masses in the Levant and northern Arabia in most periods of the month, while hotter air masses dominate parts of western European continent and parts of northern Maghreb during exciting periods of the month .
Tropical Pacific Ocean
The tropical Pacific is still under the influence of the neutral phase, as the report of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed expectations for the continuation of the neutral phase during the summer of 2021, with a high probability of about 67 %.
The rise in the ENSO index is linked to a statistical improvement in the chances of rain in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, and due to the approaching end of the spring season, the rains will be concentrated in the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula in addition to Sudan and Somalia .
It also indirectly affects the movement of jet streams in the upper climatic layer of the atmosphere. It was also found statistically, especially with the years of warming in the North Atlantic and the control of the La Niña phenomenon, an intensification of the strength of the semi-tropical high and the control of hot weather in some periods during the spring season on the northern Arabian Peninsula, the Levant and Egypt .
Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea
The IOD index exhibits neutral values and is expected to decline to negative values during the next two months, as the chances of tropical weather conditions forming in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea during the current summer decrease, and it also affects more strongly the weak chances of rain in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, where f]h is clear It is evident that the chances of rain and torrential rain have decreased during the current period, especially during the expectations of global models .
God knows
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