Could a tropical cyclone form in the Red Sea, and what role might climate change play in this?

Arab Weather - The Red Sea is considered one of the bodies of water that does not have the classic climatic conditions necessary for the formation of tropical cyclones. This is due to its narrow area, limited depth, and the weak influence of the Coriolis circulation, which places it outside the usual range for the emergence of such violent tropical weather systems.

However, with the significant global climate changes in recent years, the surface temperatures of the Red Sea have begun to rise. Could this pave the way for the formation of tropical conditions in the Red Sea in recent years?

Does this mean that the Red Sea may witness a hurricane?

According to Arab Weather experts, the chances of a tropical cyclone forming in the Red Sea are very slim now and even in the future. In fact, they are completely unlikely in the distant future, even if ocean temperatures continue to rise, due to the nature of the Red Sea.

What are the conditions for the formation of orbital states?

Tropical conditions, such as hurricanes and tropical depressions, require a combination of concurrent atmospheric and environmental conditions, which must all be present for tropical storms to develop into powerful tropical systems. The most prominent of these conditions are:

Sea surface temperature not less than 26.5°C
This is at a depth of at least 50 meters, where high temperatures are the main fuel for powering the orbital system with steam and energy.

Abundance of moisture in different layers of the atmosphere
The presence of high humidity in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere contributes to the formation of deep cumulus clouds, which feed the tropical storm.

primary atmospheric disturbance or low pressure area
The presence of a "seed" of atmospheric disturbance, such as a tropical low pressure area or an easterly wave, is considered the starting point for the formation of a tropical system.

Suitable distance from the equator (more than 5 degrees latitude)
To activate the Coriolis force, which causes air to rotate around the center of the low and contributes to the development of the swirling shape of the storm.

Weak wind shear
Vertical wind shear (the difference between the speed and direction of winds in the upper and lower layers) if strong can tear apart the structure of the tropical system and prevent it from growing.

Keep the system above warm water for a sufficient period of time.
Until it gets its full energy and turns into a tropical depression or a hurricane.

And God knows best.