Does the growing La Niña phenomenon signal a colder winter and higher chances of snow?

Arab Weather - The latest NOAA reports indicate that most global climate models predict the emergence of the La Niña phenomenon next season, with its effects continuing throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February), before it shifts back to a neutral state in early 2026.

La Niña is a phenomenon of lower temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

According to official climate models, the occurrence of La Niña is typically associated with a drop in tropical sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which affects the distribution of atmospheric pressure and weather patterns around the world, increasing the likelihood of some regions experiencing cooler-than-usual conditions.

NOAA also indicated that the continuation of this phenomenon could affect seasonal rainfall patterns and enhance the chances of seasonal climate changes in several regions of the world in the coming months.

The La Niña phenomenon is statistically associated with periods of rainlessness and the occurrence of cold waves at various intervals in the Middle East.

Forecasters at the Arab Weather Center noted that the La Niña phenomenon is statistically linked to periods of dry spells in the Middle East and recurring cold snaps. This is linked to the intensification of the Siberian High's influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter. La Niña often affects the Arab region, resulting in reduced rainfall in the Levant, but the opposite occurs in the Maghreb, where rainfall increases and temperatures drop below average. The Maghreb region experiences increased flooding and torrential rains, while the Levant region experiences increased drought due to the shape of weather systems that allow the Siberian High to expand.

However, there is no direct, clear relationship between La Niña and the chances of snowfall in the Arab region. Snowfall depends primarily on the path and location of very cold air masses, in addition to other weather factors such as pressure systems and humidity in the upper atmosphere.

Experts have pointed out that La Niña affects global weather patterns and air currents in multiple ways, potentially leading to changes in temperature and precipitation in different regions of the world. However, it is not possible to assert that its effects will be inevitable in terms of their impact on global climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which the phenomenon occurred. It is important to emphasize that these climate cycles are merely an integral part of the larger patterns that drive global weather systems.

The greatest knowledge remains with God Almighty.