Arab Weather - The average global temperature for the year 2022 was 1.15 degrees Celsius higher than the average for the period 1900-1850. The cooling effect of the La Niña event, which has dominated most of the past three years, temporarily curbed the long-term upward trend in global warming. However, the La Niña phase ended in March 2023 and is expected to be replaced in the coming months by the El Niño phase. El Niño events are usually associated with a rise in global temperatures in the year following their onset, in this case 2024.
In each of the years 2023-2027, the annual mean global near-surface temperature is projected to be between 1.1 and 1.8°C higher than the average for the period 1900-1850. The period 1900-1850 is used as a reference period because it preceded the onset of greenhouse gas emissions from human and industrial activities.
It is also 98 per cent likely that at least one of the next five years will break the temperature record set in 2016, a year of exceptionally strong El Niño events.
It is also 98 percent likely that the average for the five-year period between 2023 and 2027 will exceed the average for the previous five-year period.
The Arctic is warming at a disproportionate rate. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the Arctic is expected to experience more than three times the global average temperature anomaly if the next five extended northern hemisphere winters are included.
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