Arab Weather - It has become almost common at this time of year for news and rumors to spread about the strength of the upcoming rainy season, that the winter will be the coldest in 100 years, and the wettest since climate records began, and that the eastern Mediterranean basin will be affected by severe snowstorms that require early preparation. We at the Arab Weather Center have noticed an increase in awareness on this matter, and through this report, we aim to enhance scientific understanding and present facts away from emotions or provoking controversy, while emphasizing that God Almighty is the One who controls the clouds and distributes rain, and that His will is above all things.

What is the truth behind the rumors about the severity of the upcoming rainy season, and what is the scientific opinion on this matter?

In this report, we present a scientific answer to the validity of these rumors we hear every year. First, it must be emphasized that Earth's weather and climate patterns are extremely complex, and making accurate predictions for a period approximately five months beyond the time of this report's preparation is scientifically impossible. The atmosphere is highly sensitive, and even a small change in weather patterns significantly impacts the accuracy of near-term forecasts, let alone long-term forecasts.

Seasonal forecasts must be based on several scientific factors and foundations, including: the behavior of the atmosphere over the past months in the Northern Hemisphere, surface temperatures of various bodies of water around the world, and the use of supercomputers to extract so-called "years of similarity." The forecasts are then based on two foundations: statistical and analytical.

The results of global seasonal numerical modeling are also taken into account, producing quarterly forecasts that provide an overview of the weather conditions expected over the coming months. These quarterly forecasts differ from daily forecasts in that they are less detailed and more comprehensive, and must be updated monthly. However, their accuracy is not always as high as expected. Therefore, meteorologists around the world continue to conduct research to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. Consequently, the information circulated annually is not based on any solid scientific basis.

Weather factors affect weather patterns in winter, and it is too early to decide.

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center pointed out that the Earth undergoes successive climate cycles that affect global weather patterns. The most prominent of these are the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which reflect changes in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and influence the global distribution of rainfall and temperature. In addition, complex climate indicators play a pivotal role in shaping seasonal forecasts, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which controls the strength or weakness of the polar vortex and the extent to which cold air masses are pushed toward the middle and lower latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the activity of Atlantic depressions and the paths of winter storms in Europe, North Africa, and West Asia. The Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD) is responsible for modifying moisture paths and the movement of seasonal currents in the Indian Ocean and its indirect impact on the Middle East. The MJO oscillation is also represented by the transmission of convection waves across the tropics, which affects the response of winter jet streams and the distribution of atmospheric pressure systems.

The interplay of these factors produces complex weather patterns that change from year to year, making it scientifically impossible to predict the severity of the coming winter at this early stage. Therefore, any attempt to make early judgments about the severity of winter or the abundance of its rain remains estimations, not certainties, and is not based on scientific evidence until the prevailing weather systems become clearer as winter actually approaches.

What are your fall forecasts for this year?

As fall approaches, questions abound about whether this year's fall will bring rainy or cold weather. However, you can get all the latest details about this year's fall season through the exclusive seasonal bulletin within the Arab Weather app, which is constantly updated based on the latest climate data and global analyses.

And God knows best.