Jordan: After last year's absence of snowstorms, will they return this winter amid expectations of a La Niña phenomenon?

Arab Weather - The Kingdom experienced a relatively mild winter during the 2024/2025 winter season, marked by a lack of weather conditions and low-pressure systems that pushed into the region. This was reflected in the weak rainfall totals across most regions of the Kingdom toward the end of the season.

As a matter of course, the Kingdom did not witness any comprehensive snowfall, depressions or snowstorms during the past winter, as a reflection of the weak arrival of cold air masses and polar air to the region as a whole, as only a single polar mass succeeded in February in reaching Turkey, and the weather conditions did not allow it to penetrate deeper into the eastern Mediterranean basin, including the Kingdom. Its impact was limited to the formation of a strong cold wave accompanied by a sharp drop in temperature and scattered rainfall of some rain and snow showers on some mountainous heights.

First, what are the latest predictions for the La Niña phenomenon?

The latest forecasts indicate that a La Niña phenomenon is likely to return to the Pacific Ocean during the current fall and winter of 2025/2026, with an increased chance of occurring between September and November 2025. La Niña refers to a decrease in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to various climate impacts worldwide, such as an increased risk of flooding and drought in various regions and the formation of cold waves in some areas.

Statistically, the La Niña phenomenon is associated with a colder-than-usual winter in the region.

Statistically speaking, the Kingdom has experienced colder-than-usual winters in terms of temperatures, with rainfall around below average during several seasons that coincided with the development of the La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. However, this does not necessarily mean that snowfall or snowstorms will occur during the upcoming winter season, as Arab Weather experts confirm that the arrival of polar air masses to the Kingdom requires very precise details and the formation of weather systems in the northern hemisphere, which allow polar air to reach the region. This is represented by the necessity of the formation of a strong high-pressure system in large areas of Europe, in addition to the concentration of polar masses pushing towards eastern and southeastern Europe and Turkey, and the necessity of polar air reaching the waters of the eastern Mediterranean basin in a way that allows the formation of a low-pressure system accompanied by a polar air mass.

Despite forecasts indicating the development of the Lanna phenomenon, other important atmospheric factors that influence the region's climate cannot be ignored, such as the Arctic and North Atlantic factors, as well as the behavior of these factors, which directly affect the movement and flow of the polar jet stream toward the region.

Therefore, we at Arab Weather confirm that it is difficult to predict snowfall during the coming winter, given the long period of time, which exceeds three months, or based solely on statistical considerations or a specific weather phenomenon.

We advise everyone to follow the seasonal bulletins, which are issued monthly within the Arab Weather app, to keep up with the latest weather developments.