Jordan: How did the rainfall performance look after the recent rains?

Arab Weather - After the Kingdom was affected by a state of atmospheric instability followed by a classified low-pressure system from November 13 to 15, it led - thanks be to God - to rainfall in several areas, the highest of which was in the Ajloun Governorate. In this report issued by the Arab Weather Regional Center, we assess the reality of the rainy season in Jordan after the recent rains, which seemed very modest before the recent rainy conditions.

The following is a report issued by the Arab Weather Center analyzing the rainfall situation in Jordan:

First: What do we mean by rainfall performance and how is it evaluated after the recent rains?

Rainfall performance is defined as the percentage of cumulative rainfall compared to the cumulative rainfall expected up to a certain date, calculated based on what has been recorded on the ground over the past thirty years. When comparing the actual amount of rainfall achieved in this rainy season, we find that the rainfall performance in the Kingdom has become acceptable, and there are possibilities for improved rainfall, and good things are coming, God willing. The Kingdom's climate data shows that the nature of the rainy seasons in the Kingdom is fluctuating as a result of Jordan's geographical location between two climates (desert climate and Mediterranean climate). Climate data shows the recurrence of rain interruptions in the Kingdom's climate archive, specifically in the autumn season.

Second: The amount of rainfall that has actually occurred compared to what is expected up to (18-11-2025)

The statistical report on rainfall shows that most regions of the Kingdom are recording acceptable rainfall performance so far after the recent rains. When comparing the actual amount of rain that fell in this rainy season with what is supposed to fall (which is calculated based on what has been recorded on the ground during the past thirty years), we find that some regions of the Kingdom are suffering from very weak rainfall performance, namely: Ma’an, Al-Qatrana, Al-Jafr and Aqaba, where the rainfall performance in these regions does not exceed 18%.

Despite this, there are areas that achieved – thanks to God – excellent rainfall exceeding the expected rates, namely: the northern regions (126%), in addition to the northern Jordan Valley (121%), the southern Jordan Valley (268%), and other governorates that approached the expected rates, such as: the southwestern regions (80%), the central Jordan Valley (91%), and the central eastern regions (75%), while modest to acceptable rainfall performance was recorded in the rest of the regions, such as the central western regions (66%) and the eastern regions (54%).

On a positive note, Arab weather experts confirm that the final total for the rainy season does not depend solely on the rainfall during the autumn season, and that there have been many seasons in which the autumn did not witness any good rainfall, while the final totals for the season ended with amounts of rain around or above the seasonal averages.

Fourth: The reason for the significant variation in rainfall performance between the Kingdom's governorates

Arab weather experts believe the significant variation in rainfall across the Kingdom's governorates stems from the nature of the weather system that affected the country. This system manifested as periods of atmospheric instability characterized by randomness and geographical irregularity in thunderstorms. However, this did not prevent heavy rainfall in some parts of the Kingdom. The Kingdom was also affected by a single low-pressure system for one day, during which rainfall began in the north, then moved more steadily to the central regions and finally to the southern areas. Nevertheless, the rainfall was not sustained enough to compensate for the intensity and frequency of the storms in the southern and eastern regions.

We ask God Almighty to bless us with rain and goodness for the country.