Latest developments: Expectations that the tropical disturbance will develop in the coming days and chances that it will threaten some Arab countries next week

2023-10-19 2023-10-19T16:16:31Z
محمد عوينة
محمد عوينة
مُتنبئ جوي

Arabia Weather - The latest satellite images at the Regional Arabia Weather Center show the presence of a low air pressure area southeast of the Arabian Sea (tropical disturbance), which is a gathering of cumulus clouds interspersed with incoherent foci of low air pressure in the lower atmosphere and rotational wind movement. Counterclockwise at a speed less than (17 knots).

It is expected - God willing - that the tropical state will continue to move west and northwest, with the tropical state developing into a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. There are also increasing indications that the tropical condition will develop into a tropical storm by the beginning of next week, coinciding with its continued movement to the west and northwest.

South of the peninsula, the likely path of the tropical condition with direct impacts expected next week

Numerical models do not yet agree on the path of the weather condition in the Arabian Sea (which is a computer modeling that simulates the expected path and intensity of the tropical system and does not necessarily agree on the same scenario), as the difference is still dominant due to its level as a tropical disturbance, and it is expected that the models will converge. Numerical forecasts about the path, speed, and direction after the tropical disturbance develops into a tropical depression.

According to the analyzes of specialists at the Arabian Weather Center, it is expected, God willing, that the south of the Arabian Peninsula will be the most likely path for the tropical condition, as it may directly affect the southern parts of the Sultanate of Oman and eastern south Yemen during the next week, and the scientific reason behind this probability comes. The path is the relative distance of the upper air high over the south of the Arabian Peninsula, in addition to the activity of the easters in the high layers of the atmosphere over the southern regions of the Arabian Sea, giving a relative advantage to the orientation of the tropical state west and northwest towards the west of the Arabian Sea.

This article was written originally in Arabic and is translated using a 3rd party automated service. ArabiaWeather is not responsible for any grammatical errors whatsoever.
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