Latest updates: A low pressure area capable of developing into a tropical depression by the end of the week, and the southern Arabian Peninsula is one of the possible paths

Arabia Weather - The results of analyzes of weather forecasters in the regional “Arab Weather” indicate that weather conditions are favorable in the Arabian Sea to form the first tropical condition during its second season around the current weekend, i.e. between 19 and 21 October 2023.

Preliminary forecasts indicate a high probability of the formation of an area of low air pressure (tropical disturbance) in the southeastern Arabian Sea during the next 48 hours, with the possibility of it developing into a tropical state (tropical depression) later - God willing - on the next Friday and Saturday, without any direct effects on Southern Arabian Peninsula for at least the next four days.

The surface waters in the Arabian Sea are witnessing a rise in temperature above their usual levels - as hot water is considered the fuel that operates these tropical systems, and there is a decline in the summer monsoon winds in most parts of the Arabian Sea, which gives a good indication that the tropical state will find a suitable environment. Because of the shear winds, the tropical state develops for more than one tropical depression, and therefore there is a good chance that it will reach the level of a storm and thus receive a new designation from the regional center.

Southern Arabia is the most likely route so far

Specialists at the Regional Arabia Weather Center are monitoring the possible paths of the tropical state, but the analysis of the prevailing weather systems in the Arabian Sea, represented by the relative distance of the upper air high over the south of the Arabian Peninsula, in addition to the activity of the easters in the high layers of the atmosphere, gives a relative advantage to the direction of the tropical state to the west and The northwest is far away from its formation, towards the western Arabian Sea, but this is still within the scope of preliminary indicators and requires further follow-up.

“Arab Weather” will provide followers with detailed forecasts as soon as weather information is available and stable, God willing.