Top 10 impacts of El Niño on the world and the Arab world

Arab Weather - Weather specialists in meteorological and climate centers around the world follow the outputs of computer simulations and observational data related to the surface temperatures of water bodies, due to their fundamental role in understanding the nature of the prevailing weather patterns at the level of the two hemispheres of the Earth. These centers focus in particular on the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, specifically the area extending off the coasts of South America, where sea surface temperature measurements are used as a key indicator of the development of large-scale climatic phenomena.

Recent global reports and numerical model outputs indicate the development of a condition known as “Super El Niño,” which is an advanced stage of the El Niño phenomenon resulting from a large and abnormal rise in water surface temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. This rise leads to a disruption in the thermal balance between the ocean and the atmosphere, which is directly reflected in global weather patterns, through a change in the distribution of atmospheric pressure systems and the movement of jet streams, and thus reshaping the paths of low and high pressure systems around the world during the coming months.

From a scientific perspective, the oceans are one of the most important drivers of the global climate system, acting as a vast reservoir of thermal energy. When sea surface temperatures rise in certain regions, large amounts of heat and moisture are released into the atmosphere, strengthening or weakening convection systems and altering atmospheric circulation patterns. This explains the widespread effects of El Niño on global weather.

Accordingly, climate models show a range of expected impacts as follows statistically:

• First: Extreme heat waves above climatic averages in parts of southwestern Europe during the summer, especially France and Spain.
• Second: Increased likelihood of droughts and forest fires in parts of the European continent as a result of rising temperatures and low humidity.
• Third: Rainfall rates above average in the Mediterranean basin, especially in the central and western basin, with the possibility of flash floods, local floods, and severe storms.
• Fourth: Higher than average atmospheric activity in the United States during the summer and fall seasons, with increased chances of heavy rain and flooding in some areas.
• Fifth: A clear decrease in rainfall amounts in South and East Asia, including India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia.
• Sixth: Rainfall in northern Australia has declined compared to normal climatic averages.
• Seventh: Decreased rainfall in Somalia and parts of East and Central Africa, with an increased likelihood of drought periods.
• Eighth: Above-average rainfall in parts of the Indian Ocean, including the Maldives.
• Ninth: Noticeable autumn activity in the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and the Caucasus Mountains, as a result of changing jet stream patterns and the passage of cold basins.
• Tenth: A clear variation in temperatures and rainfall in the Middle East region between hotter periods and others more prone to atmospheric instability.

And God knows best.