Weather of Arabia - According to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are likely to rise in the next five years, due to greenhouse gas emissions and the natural El Niño phenomenon, to reach record levels.
It is 66 percent likely that annual average global temperatures near the Earth's surface will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C in at least one year from 2023-2027. It is 98 percent likely that at least one of the next five years, and this five-year period in total, will be the hottest on record.
WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas explained, “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement, which indicates long-term and many years of warming. However, WMO is sounding the alarm.” The danger is to warn that the world will cross the 1.5°C threshold temporarily, but at an increasing pace.
“An El Niño phenomenon is expected to begin in the coming months and, combined with anthropogenic climate change, will cause global temperatures to rise to unprecedented levels. This rise will have serious consequences for health, food security, water management and the environment. Therefore, we must To be on our guard."
According to the annual-to-decadal Global Climate Outlook update prepared by the United Kingdom's Met Office (the Met Office), the WMO headquarters for this type of forecast, there is only a 32 per cent chance that it will exceed the average over the next five years. threshold of 1.5 °C.
However, the probability of temporarily crossing this threshold has been increasing steadily since 2015. At that time, this possibility was almost non-existent, then it increased in the period 2017-2021 to reach 10 percent.
"The global average temperature is expected to continue to rise, taking us further and further away from the climate we knew in the past," notes Dr Leon Hermanson, a UK Met Office scientist who led the report.
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